Illustration of plausible effects when the activity of hazard(s) switches between climatologically controlled modes of behaviour, based on Great Britain. The impact-centric conceptualisation of the multi-hazard system (left-hand side panel) with two hazard modes, each associated with a dominant wind direction (blue arrows), that drive six hazards (circles). Rail infrastructure (red) is exposed to all six hazards, whilst (re)insurance (orange) is primarily concerned with only two in Mode 2. Losses in terms of magnitude and frequency (right-hand side panel), are illustrated with rare ‘worst cases’ on the righthand side (grey band). A conventional view that does not consider dependencies (grey line) might underestimate risk if two perils (e.g. flood and wind) compound. However, where exposed assets are subject to hazards driven by two opposing modes (red line) compounding effects are suppressed, so care is needed to avoid overestimating risk. Solid arrows represent effect magnitudes seen within the Network Rail loss data, with dashed ones indicating plausible stronger effects.
- Creator: John Hillier
- This version: 05.05.2023
- License: Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0)
- Specific citation: This graphics by John Hillier from Hillier et al. (2020) are available via the open-access s-Ink.org repository.
- Related reference: Hillier, J. K. , Matthews, T., Wilby, R., Murphy, C. (2020) Multi-hazard dependencies can increase or decrease risk Nature Climate Change, 10, 595–598 doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0832-y
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